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Probing the Limits of Atmospheric Predictability with a Deep Learning Framework — NSF Award to University of Washington (WA, $337,

Weather forecasts are believed to be inherently limited by the growth of small errors present at the initial time, with all skill lost by about two weeks. This long-held belief derives from experiments with traditional models that represent the laws of physics for the atmosphere. Recently, forecast models based on mach

Award titleProbing the Limits of Atmospheric Predictability with a Deep Learning Framework
Award ID2501400
AwardeeUniversity of Washington
CitySEATTLE
StateWA
Amount obligated$337,147
Principal investigatorGregory Hakim
ProgramClimate & Large-Scale Dynamics
Start date08/15/2025
AbstractWeather forecasts are believed to be inherently limited by the growth of small errors present at the initial time, with all skill lost by about two weeks. This long-held belief derives from experiments with traditional models that represent the laws of physics for the atmosphere. Recently, forecast models based on machine learning (ML) have emerged with skill comparable to the physics-based models. Since the ML models do not solve to solve physical equations but only learn from data, they provid
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